Subject: Myanmar Coup Updates for October 27
Shan-Kayah border fighting; rewards offered to defecting soldiers; first all-female armed resistance group; ASSK defends self against incitement charges; some COVID restrictions lifted; POSCO moves ahead with planned offshore gas investments; ASEAN Summit drama; volatile security situation in Rohingya camps in Bangladesh
- Fighting on Shan-Kayah border: About 1,500 villagers have fled Pekhon and neighboring Mobye in recent days due to clashes between the Tatmadaw and armed opposition forces; nearby in Demoso (Kayah), 10 soldiers were killed by likely IED attacks. And a third resistance force, this one in Pekhon, is offering a reward to soldiers that defect; the reward of ~US$2,600 echoes earlier rewards offered to defecting soldiers in Chin State and in Taungoo (Bago).
- Sagaing remains a hotspot: Several thousand villagers fled Mingin (Sagaing) after a Tatmadaw raid on Tuesday as the Monywa - Mandalay highway was closed to sweep for explosive devices. And a new guerilla resistance force in Myaung is the first (known) all-female armed opposition group.
- Other killings and arrests:Ward and village administrators were killed in Yangon, Naypyidaw, and Magwe; a CDM teacher was gunned down at home in Homalin (Sagaing) on Sunday, possibly intending to target a local protest leader or in retaliation for an unlinked killing of an informant earlier in the day; two youth in Dawei (Tanintharyi) were killed after being abducted by the Tatmadaw; and the Tatmadaw arrested three men in Rakhine on terrorism charges for allegedly being associated with a PDF, even though there has no known civilian armed opposition in Rakhine since the coup.
- Health workers and facilities continue to be targeted: A new analysis suggests there have been nearly 300 attacks and threats against health workers and facilities since the coup. That said, the pace of attacks has slowed significantly, with the WHO database logging only 25 of those attacks since July 1.
- ASSK defends herself against incitement charges: ASSK took the stand on Tuesday to defend herself against incitement charges linked to statements released by the NLD after she had already been detained. Details of her defense were limited because of the gag orders imposed on her lawyers.
- Terrorism charges filed against three journalists: Three journalists from Mandalay and Sagaing, who had initially faced incitement charges under 505a of the Penal Code, are now likely to face terrorism charges (though they have not yet been filed).
- Some COVID restrictions lifted: On Thursday morning, COVID-related restrictions will be lifted in 44 townships (see pg. 2) across Myanmar, about half the number of townships that had been under stay-at-home orders.
- Electricity cuts in Yangon: There were several reports of the military cutting electricity to residents that refused to pay their bills as part of the Civil Disobedience Movement.
- POSCO pushes ahead with gas investments, Adani abandons port project: South Korean conglomerate POSCO plans to move ahead with existing investments of nearly $800 million in offshore gas projects over the next 2.5 years. Indian company Adani, meanwhile, said it will abandon plans to build a port in Myanmar.
- International response
- ASEAN Summit drama:The Chairman's Statement for Tuesday's ASEAN Summit signaled that ASEAN is likely to continue to take a relatively passive approach to Myanmar: "We reiterated that Myanmar remains a member of the ASEAN family and recognised that Myanmar needs both time and political space to deal with its many and complex challenges...we remain committed to support Myanmar in its efforts to return to normalcy in accordance with the will of the people of Myanmar." Indeed, military-appointed ministers continued to participate in other ASEAN events even as Min Aung Hlaing was barred from the main event. Interestingly though, ASEAN appeared surprisingly united in its position on Myanmar and Cambodia's PM Hun Sen took an unexpectedly robust position saying "Myanmar abandoned its rights with a boycott"; Cambodia's position will be critical as it takes over as ASEAN Chair next year. Others, including Singapore, emphasized the reputational risk that Myanmar poses for ASEAN. For its part, the junta's Ministry of Foreign Affairs said its non-participation in the ASEAN Summit was not a protest or boycott, but reiterated that it could not accept the exclusion of the head of state from the Summit; the military also likely had a hand in organizing a dozen small pro-military rallies across Myanmar timed to coincide with the ASEAN Summit. The NUG, meanwhile, took the opportunity to appoint Bo Hla Tint as its ambassador to ASEAN, though those hoping ASEAN will swing its support behind the NUG are likely to be disappointed.
- Biden at the US-ASEAN Summit: A readout of President Biden's participation in the US-ASEAN Summit includes notes that "He also expressed grave concerns about the military coup and horrific violence in Burma and called on the country’s military regime to immediately end the violence, release those unjustly detained, and restore Burma’s path to democracy. He expressed support for ASEAN efforts to hold the Burmese military regime accountable to the Five Point Consensus." That support for ASEAN, while pragmatic, is likely misplaced given the lack of urgency ASEAN has shown in addressing the crisis.
- NUG, Malaysia welcome new UN Envoy: Both Malaysia and the NUG welcomed the appointment of Noeleen Heyzer as the new UN Special Envoy for Myanmar. PassBlue has additional background on the new Envoy.
- Rohingya camp security volatile: Even as Bangladeshi authorities continue to make arrests, including of some alleged high-level ARSA officials, over Mohibullah's murder and last Friday's killings, paranoia in the camps is growing, with accusations flying - some of them erroneous - that various stakeholders in the camps are affiliated with ARSA. Though Bangladesh continues to deny its presence in the camps, Bangladesh media is beginning to reckon with the scope of ARSA's power. ARSA claimed to carry out an attack on Myanmar security forces in northern Rakhine, though without any reporting on this from the Myanmar side of the border, it seems possible it is just intended to distract from its role in terrorizing Rohingya in the camps.
Steve Ross
Senior Advisor and Program Director
Richardson Center for Global Engagement
